Sandia Energy > Programs > Electric Grid > Advanced Grid Modeling > Threat and Impact Modeling Sandia’s threat modeling work focuses on characterizing the wide-ranging impacts from natural hazards on our infrastructure sectors. Threats serve as the key input to resilience analysis, and accurate assessment of system performance depends on a knowledge of what is likely to go wrong when a disruption occurs. The threats are diverse – think hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, cold waves, or flooding – and the impacts are span across assets, space, and time. In many cases the threats themselves are well understood, but there is a need to better assess the impacts to infrastructure assets. By improving our understanding of both the expected disruptions from natural hazards and the likelihood of specific hazard occurrence, we provide input to foster better decisions for infrastructure planning and operations. Our work seeks to characterize and predict both direct and indirect impacts from specific threat types. We employ a mixture of physics-based failure models (such as established fragility curves), statistical impact models that are built using historical event data, and heuristics driven by knowledge of past events. Given the prevalence of imperfect or missing data in this space, uncertainty quantification is a key aspect of any impact assessment. We often work to create scenarios that represent a likely range of potential impacts. This allows us to identify sensitivities or critical assets in the system to guide resilience investments and proactive planning. Impact Assessment Much of our work is focused on impacts to the electric grid, and we also aim to capture dependencies (and interdependencies) across other infrastructure sectors to ensure that we can provide a full view of what might go wrong. Only then can we start to determine the optimal set of decisions to improve resilience. Direct impacts from natural hazards include things like: Damage to a generator from an earthquakeDowned power lines from hurricane-force windsIcing on wind turbines, forcing them to shut downGrid disconnections due to wildfire damageFrozen natural gas wellheads during a cold wave event Indirect impacts are often just as important and can be the key drivers of complications in preparation and recovery. These include things like: Reductions in solar PV production due to wildfire smoke in the atmosphereForced generator outages due to fuel supply disruptionsIncreased electricity demand during a heat wave eventReduced thermal generator efficiencies due to warmer water used for coolingProlonged outages due to required repairs and recovery complications By combining direct and indirect impacts, we can start to build multisector impact scenarios that provide a full picture, across space and time, of the factors at play to determine a system’s level of function and the consequences to customers from specific hazard events. Ideally, we can use these scenarios to analyze and improve resilience across the threat space. Climate Change and Natural Hazards Climate change is driving changes in the frequency and intensity of natural hazards and extreme weather events. Infrastructure assets are typically designed to function for decades, which means that the operational environment at the end of their lifespan may look very different than it does today. Thus, planning models need to explicitly account for climate change and the potential impacts on individual infrastructure assets and system demands. We are working to assess threat impacts both for today and as they evolve over time. Some examples of climate-induced threat considerations include: Stronger hurricanes with greater precipitation potentialChanging precipitation patterns resulting in increased flood riskWorsening drought conditions that may reduce hydropower supplyIncreased frequency of heat waves that drive peak electricity demandsIncreased frequency of cold waves due to a weakened jet streamHeightened wildfire risk due to drought and high temperaturesSea level rise putting assets at risk from storm surge The hazard space is vast, and detailed characterization of all threats and all possible impacts is an active and ongoing area of research. Climate change adds a sizeable amount of uncertainty to the planning space, and we aim to create tools and data products that support decision-makers faced with these uncertainties. Contact Brian J. Pierre, Ph.D Manager, Electric Power Systems Research Department (505) 284-7955 bjpierr@sandia.gov