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HOW
THE SOLAR CALCULATOR COMPUTES SIMPLE PAYBACK:
To
building the Solar Calculator we
first determined the expected energy performance of an indoor
and an outdoor swimming pool in each of the regions in the
Solar Calculator’s map. This
was done using an energy performance software tool called
“Energy Smart Pools”, a tool developed by the
Department of Energy as part of its RSPEC! program (which
stands for “Reduce Swimming Pool Energy Costs!”).
From the modeling, we obtained the annual energy cost to heat
each pool under 4 conditions:
| 1. |
With
neither a pool cover nor a solar hot water heating system; |
| 2. |
With
a pool cover alone; |
| 3. |
With
a solar hot water heating system alone; and |
| 4.
|
With both a cover and a solar hot water heating system. |
From these
energy cost values we were able to compute the Simple Payback
(SPB) as detailed below.
Computing
the SPB for a Swimming Pool Cover The
Simple Payback for the swimming pool cover is the initial
cost of the cover divided by the annual energy savings (in
$’s) obtained by its use. In mathematical terms
it is as follows:
| SPB,
cover = (Cost, cover) / ((Energy Savings, cover) * (Unit
Cost, energy)) |
After
a brief survey of on-line retail costs of swimming pool covers
we selected a median cost of $2 per square foot of cover for
manual-type pool covers. This cost included the cover material
and a manual take-up reel for storing the cover. In our modeling,
we assumed 90% coverage of the pool surface by the cover.
Hence, the energy cost of the cover (Cost, cover) was fixed
at $1,800 (900 square feet times $2/sq ft.).
The
energy savings (Energy Savings, cover) for the cover came
directly from our software modeling work (in units of MBtu/year).
Finally, the unit cost for the energy (Unit Cost, energy)
is a user input value.
Computing
the SPB for an Unglazed Solar Collector
The
Simple Payback for an unglazed solar collector is computed
in a similar fashion. It is the installed cost of the solar
system divided by the annual energy savings, and is computed
as follows:
| SPB,
collector = (Cost, collector) / ((Energy Savings, collector)
* (Unit Cost, energy)) |
Several assumptions were made that determined the cost of
the solar collector:
•
The solar collector would be an unglazed type collector;
we estimated its installed cost (Cost, collector)
to be $11/square foot when non-union labor was employed
and $19/square foot when union labor was employed.
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•
We assumed that 3 square feet of collector would be
installed for every 4 square feet of pool surface
area. I.e. the 1,000 square foot pool that we modeled
was equipped with a 750 square foot solar collector.
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As in the case of the pool cover, the Energy Savings
(MBtu/year) came directly from the RSPEC! performance modeling,
and the Unit Cost of energy is a user input value.
Computing
the SPB for both the cover and the solar collector
The
Simple Payback for both the cover and the solar collector
is the total cost of cover plus collector system divided by
the total annual energy savings. We computed it as follows:
| SPB,
both = (Cost, collector + Cost, cover) / ((Energy Savings,
both) * (Unit Cost, energy)) |
Note
that the Simple Payback is more or less unchanged when you
change the size of the pool. That is because both a)
the cost of the cover and solar system and b) the annual savings
derived from them are approximately linear with the size (surface
area) of the pool. That assumption may break down if you equipping
a single small pool (in which case you may have to pay a higher
price per square foot of pool cover).
Installed
cost of solar swimming pool heater system
The Calculator provides a reasonable estimate of
the installed cost of the solar hot water (SHW) system(s).
It is computed by rule of thumb:
Cost,
SHW System = Surface area,pool (ft2) * (3 ft2, solar collector
/ 4 ft2, pool surface) * Unit Cost of ($/ft2, collector)
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Size
of solar collector: We sized the SHW system to provide
a solar collection area (array size) equal to ¾ of
the surface area of the swimming pool(s). In the detailed
design stage that area may well be adjusted (optimized) and
this would of course change the installed cost. But the Simple
Payback and the IEP’s Best Offer price (explained below)
are not significantly impacted by changes in the solar array
size.
Installed SHW system cost: The typical unit
cost of installed SHW systems of this type (using unglazed
solar collectors) is around $11 per square foot of solar collector
when installed using non-union labor. When union labor is
employed that number is roughly $19.
IEP
Best Offer helps you determine the viability of your project
Managers want to get to the bottom
line when it comes to decision making. In the matter of heating
swimming pools, you have these questions: Will it be profitable
for a third party to invest in a solar swimming pool heating
system(s) and sell back to you the energy needed to heat your
pool(s)? Can he make enough money from the deal while still
offering you a better price than you are currently paying
to heat your pool(s)? Most importantly and specifically,
what would he need to charge you for the heat he supplies?
What might his best offer be?
The Best Offer price which is embedded
in the Solar Calculator answers
that question. It gives you the likely best price you’d
obtain for solar heat delivered to the pool and,
for comparison, shows you what you are probably paying right
now.
Keep in mind that your current cost
for pool heating is the price you pay for energy divided by
the efficiency of your pool heating system. (In the Calculator
we assumed an efficiency of 75%, which is a reasonable number
to use.)
Details about the method behind the
Best Offer price
The IEP Best Offer price is the price
to heat your pool that the independent energy producer would
need to charge you, the pool owner, while earning for himself
an after-tax internal rate of return of 15%.
We computed the Best Offer price using a private ownership
Rate of Return methodology and incorporated the results into
the Solar Calculator.
The “Private Ownership Rate of Return” method
(Independent Energy Producer) computes the annual after-tax
cash flow, taking into account the revenues defined in the
potential power purchase contract and the costs associated
with the construction and operation of the solar swimming
pool heating system. The approach captures the relevant investment
costs after-tax and compares them with the net cash flow from
the investment after-tax over time. Investor feasibility is
determined by calculating a project’s potential internal
rate of return after tax. In this analysis, an after-tax return
of 15% with a 70/30
debt equity ratio was determined to provide an adequate return.
The debt coverage ratio (DCR) was evaluated to provide a preliminary
indication of the feasibility for financing. A minimum debt
coverage ratio of 1.40 was assumed to be adequate. The accompanying
table indicates the significant assumptions that were made
Assumptions for IEP Best Offer Calculation
| Item |
Units |
Value |
Real Discount Rate |
% |
3.0 |
Nominal Discount Rate |
% |
5.2 |
| Inflation |
% |
2.1 |
| Investment
Life |
Years |
20 |
| Year
of Specification Dollars |
Year |
2003 |
| Investment
tax credit |
% |
0 |
| Construction
interest rate |
% |
10 |
| Permanent
financing rate |
%
|
10 |
| Debt
to equity ratio |
% |
70/30 |
| Debt
coverage ratio |
% |
1.40 |
The
Federal ITC applies to photovoltaics, solar hot water, and
solar hot air. It does not apply to solar heating of pools
or daylighting.
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